Winter, Harsh or Mild?

-Christopher Grubb

(Defiance, Oh) A lot of people are considering this year, 2014-2015, to be a harsher winter than last year, 2013-2014. So I looked at few sources and did some research about this winter’s outlook.

Looking back at last winter, from the most accurate resource, Toledo saw 84.8 inches of snowfall, making it was the snowiest winter in Toledo’s history! It was the 5th coldest winter in Toledo history, with an average temperature of 20.4 degrees fahrenheit.

The farmer’s almanac indicates this winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in late December, throughout January, and in early February. Precipitation will be below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Snowfall will be above normal in most of the region, with the snowiest periods in mid-December, early and mid-January, and early February.

Although NOAA,  National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, three month weather outlook does not reveal snow until mid-October which should give a better understanding of weather predictions and now that winter is closer.

NOAA is a science-based federal agency within the Department of Commerce with regulatory, operational, and information service responsibilities with a presence in every state and territory.

Currently at this time NOAA weather forecasters have a 65% chance for an El Niño and favor the event of a weak El Niño.

In an El Niño, ocean surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are unusually warm. El In contrast, La Nina is when the ocean has unusually cool temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.

Both of these phenomena can influence weather patterns across the globe. There are also different types of El Niño and La Nina which can also change the weather patterns as well as winters.

Some other resources that are available currently are calling for a weak El Niño. Also saying this winter resembles last winter, which was harsh in the upper Midwest and Great Plains.

This year, Defiance can expect another fairly snowy winter although it looks slightly less snowy than the extreme winter we had last year, with average temperatures overall. Sources of average temperatures indicate higher temperatures overall for the month.

The average temperature in December is 38 degrees fahrenheit, the coldest average comes in January which is 33 degrees fahrenheit. Then the average temperatures starts progressing with 38 degrees fahrenheit in February and 48 degrees fahrenheit in March.

Winter this year looks to be slightly more mild than last year, but typically Ohio weather can always bring changes!